Bricketology Vol 1

All this week i'll be doing my own version of bracketology. Now i'm no Joe Lunardi, but I think i've watched enough games and done enough research to correctly pick all 65 teams. I know its easy with the 31 auto-bids, but picking the other 34 takes some knowledge. All this week, i'll be posting what bubble teams are alive, which are dead and my last 4 IN and last 4 OUT.

Let's get it on

Last 4 IN
Georgia Tech
San Diego State
Washington
Florida

Last 4 OUT
UAB
Rhode Island
Arizona State
Ole Miss

The Bubble
Rhode Island (21-8 (9-7) RPI:39) The loss at UMass may have dropped then from in to out, but they have a chance to play their way back in. They host St Joe's tomorrow in the A-10 tourney opener. A win sets up a rematch with St Louis, who beat them by 5 in St Louis a few weeks ago. To get in, they would have to get to the semifinals which could set up a 3rd meeting with Temple. Beating Temple would almost surely lock them into the field of 65.

Dayton (19-11 (8-8) RPI:51) losing at home to St Louis may have ended their chances at the tournament. They have 3 top 50 RPI wins (Xavier, GT, ODU) but also have a bad loss to St Joe's. They host GW tomorrow in the opening round of the A-10 tourney. Dayton will have to win the A-10 tourney to make it in.

St Louis (20-10 (11-5) RPI:83) St Louis blew a great chance at a signature win losing to Temple last week. Sweeping Dayton, and winning over Rhode Island have them on the board. They have a first round bye in the A-10 tourney with a potential date with URI in round 2 which could be a bubble busting game. A win could set up a rematch with Temple. They also have a win over Richmond, but lost to UGA.

Georgia Tech (19-11 (7-9) RPI:44) lost both games they needed to have last week. Losing at Clemson and at home vs Va Tech. Tech draws UNC in round one of the ACC tournament. They would need to win that game and maybe upset #2 seed Maryland to lock up a spot. Tech has good wins over Duke, Wake, Clemson and Siena but were swept by FSU and lost to Miami.

Notre Dame (21-10 (10-8) RPI:59) despite losing Luke Harangody, ND won their final 4 games, beating Pitt, @GTown, UConn and @Marquette. Even if they lose their first Big East game, they are a safe bet to be in the field. They also beat WVU and their worst loss came @ Rutgers.

Illinois (18-13 (10-8) RPI:75) tough week for the Illini losing to Ohio State and Wisconsin. The good news is they draw Wisconsin in the Big Ten tournament on Friday. A win would put them in good position to get an at large berth. They have 4 decent wins (Mich St, @Wisc, Clemson and Vandy). What could hurt them was the 2 point loss at home to Minnesota.

Washington (21-9 (11-7) RPI:49) the Huskies swept the Oregon schools on the road and will play Oregon State in the Pac-10 tourney on Thursday. If all goes well, they would get Arizona State in the semis setting up a potential win and in game. Washington's best wins are Texas A&M and Cal. Losing twice to USC and at home to Oregon don't help.

Arizona State (22-9 (12-6) RPI:53) the Devils are basically in the same boat as Washington. Win your opening round Pac-10 tourney game against Stanford and set yourself up for a showdown vs Washington, where the winner will be in position to make the tournament. Arizona State doesn't have a great top 50 RPI victory, in fact, their best victories have come vs fellow bubble teams Washington and San Diego St.

Florida (20-11 (9-7) RPI:52) two close losses this week did not help. A 4 point home loss to Vandy and an 8 point loss at Kentucky. Florida plays Auburn in the SEC tournament opener Thursday. A win sets up a bubble busting match vs Mississippi St. Florida has good wins vs Mich St, Tennessee and Florida State. But a three game losing streak and a bad loss to UGA hurt.

Ole Miss (21-9 (9-7) RPI:57) Ole Miss has won 4 in a row. Finishing 2nd in the SEC West earned them a first round bye. They will play the winner of the Tennessee vs LSU matchup Friday. They will need to get to at least the semis to be considered. They have a great win over Kansas State in Puerto Rico, but haven't done much in SEC play. They also lost to Florida and were swept by Miss St.

Mississippi State (21-11 (9-7) RPI:69) Miss St had a tough week. A bad 9 point loss at Auburn and then blow out at home by Tennessee may have ended their at large chances. Miss St did win the SEC West and earned a first round bye. They will play the winner of Florida vs Auburn on Friday. Miss St would have to beat Florida and then potentially Vandy to get back into the discussion. Not much in terms of good wins. Their best wins are ODU and Ole Miss twice. They do have bad losses to Rider and Auburn.

San Diego State (22-8 (11-5) RPI:36) they won both games last week vs AFA and Colorado St. Now a rematch with Colorado State in the MWC tourney and a potential rematch with New Mexico in the semis if they win. They split with New Mexico and UNLV in conference play, but were swept by BYU and a horrible loss to Wyoming. A win over NM may just be enough to put them in the tournament.

Memphis (23-8 (13-3) RPI:46) Memphis put themselves back in the conversation with a huge win over UAB and a blowout win over Tulsa. They earned the #2 seed in the C-USA tourney and could potentially meet UAB in the semis. They had close losses to Kansas, Syracuse, Gonzaga and Tennessee. Other than UAB, not many top 50 wins. Memphis is on the right side of the bubble for now and a trip to the C-USA final might put them in lock status.

UAB (23-7 (11-5) RPI:40) two big losses last week to Memphis and UTEP hurt their chances. But if UAB can get to the semis of the C-USA tourney and get another shot at Memphis, it put them back into the hunt. UAB has two good wins, beating Butler and Marshall, but a loss to Virginia seems worse after the Cavs have lost 8 straight games.

Marshall (23-8 (11-5) RPI:62) why is Marshall here you ask? They finished conference play with 11 wins. They have a road win over UAB, but lost their only meetings with Memphis and UTEP. Marshall could play themselves in if they get a semifinals rematch with UTEP. But realistically they need to win the C-USA tournament. Their worst lost is a novemeber loss to UNC.

Utah State (25-6 (14-2) RPI:32) Utah State has the second longest win streak in the country behind Butler. They have a very impressive win over BYU. They split with NMST and swept Nevada in WAC play. They will play Boise State in the first round of the WAC tourney on Wednesday. They may need to get to the final of the WAC tournament to get an at large bid.

Saint Mary's (25-5 (11-3) RPI:43) deja vu? Saint Marys was in this same position a year ago. WCC Championship vs Gonzaga. Win and your in, lose and sweat on selection Sunday. They have wins over fellow bubble teams SDST and Utah St, but were swept by Gonzaga. A third loss to the Zags may keep Saint Mary's out because they won't have a signature win.

Nevada (19-11 (11-5) RPI:64) riding a 3 game win streak entering the WAC tourney has Nevada back in the discussion. The #2 seed in the WAC tournament, the Wolfpack will play San Jose State on Wednesday. They swept New Mexico State but were swept by Utah State and also have a bad loss to Hawaii. Nevada would have to win the WAC tourney to get in.