Friday, March 12, 2010

Bricketology Vol 4

Thursday was bubble burst day. Cincy, Arizona State, UAB, Memphis and Marshall all lost, thus ending their hopes of at large bids. Notre Dame locked up a spot with a win over Pitt. Plenty of bubble games today including Rhode Island vs St Louis, Illinois vs Wisconsin, Ole Miss vs Tennessee and Miss St vs Florida. 28 of 34 bids are locked up. Will anyone else join the big dance today?

Last 4 IN
San Diego State
Washington
Illinois
Ole Miss

Last 4 OUT
Rhode Island
Arizona State
Mississippi State
Seton Hall

The Bubble
Rhode Island (22-8 (9-7) RPI:41) they did what they needed to do by beating St Joe's at home on Tuesday to open the A-10 tournament. They will play St Louis in round 2 and the winner could face Temple in the A-10 semis. Rhode Island may need to make the A-10 final to be safe. The Rams went 0-5 against the top 4 seeds in the A-10and only have 2 top 50 RPI wins (OKST 28 and Dayton 49). They do have some eyesore losses (St Bonaventure 155 and UMass 175).

Dayton (20-11 (8-8) RPI:51) they stayed alive with a win over GW in the first round of the A-10 tournament setting up a third meeting with Xavier on Friday. They have 3 top 50 RPI wins (Xavier, GT, ODU) but also have a bad loss to St Joe's. Dayton will have to win the A-10 tourney to make it in.

St Louis (20-10 (11-5) RPI:85) St Louis blew a great chance at a signature win losing to Temple last week. Sweeping Dayton, and winning over Rhode Island have them on the board. They have a first round bye in the A-10 tourney and will play URI in round 2 Friday, which could be a bubble busting game. A win could set up a rematch with Temple. They also have a win over Richmond, but lost to UGA.

Georgia Tech (20-11 (7-9) RPI:40) after trailing by 10 at the half, they came back to beat UNC 82-78 to advance in the ACC tournament. But they still need to upset #2 seed Maryland to lock up a spot. Tech has good wins over Duke, Wake, Clemson and Siena but were swept by FSU and lost to Miami and Virginia.

Illinois (18-13 (10-8) RPI:77) tough week for the Illini losing to Ohio State and Wisconsin. The good news is they draw Wisconsin in the Big Ten tournament on Friday. A win would put them in good position to get an at large berth. They have 4 decent wins (Mich St, @Wisc, Clemson and Vandy). What could hurt them was the 2 point loss at home to Minnesota.

Washington (22-9 (11-7) RPI:49) it looked grim at halftime, but a 25-6 run in the second half led the way to a victory over Oregon State. Washington will play Stanford, who upset Arizona State. As long as the Huskies beat Stanford to advance to the Pac 10 championship game, they should be in good shape. Washington's best wins are Texas A&M and Cal. Losing twice to USC and at home to Oregon doesn't help.

Florida (21-11 (9-7) RPI:52) Florida defeated Auburn by 9 to advance to the SEC quarters to play Miss State. The winner is in great shape for an at large and the loser may be heading to the NIT. Florida has good wins vs Mich St, Tennessee and Florida State. But a three game losing streak and a bad loss to UGA hurt.

Ole Miss (21-9 (9-7) RPI:56) Ole Miss has won 4 in a row. Finishing 2nd in the SEC West earned them a first round bye. They will play Tennessee today in the SEC quarters. They will need to get to at least the semis to be considered. They have a great win over Kansas State in Puerto Rico and defeated UTEP but haven't done much in SEC play. They also lost to Florida and were swept by Miss St.

Mississippi State (21-11 (9-7) RPI:67) Miss St will play Florida today in the SEC quarters. Miss St would have to beat Florida and then potentially Vandy to get back into the discussion. Not much in terms of good wins. Their best wins are ODU and Ole Miss twice. They do have bad losses to Rider and Auburn.

San Diego State (23-8 (11-5) RPI:32) the Aztecs almost lost to Colorado State but held on for a 72-71 win. They will get New Mexico in the MWC semis. A win will almost certainly lock them in. A loss will leave them wondering if they are in or out on selection Sunday. They split with New Mexico and UNLV in conference play, but were swept by BYU and a horrible loss to Wyoming.

Utah State (26-6 (14-2) RPI:30) Utah State blew out Boise State to adavance to the semis of the WAC tournament vs Louisiana Tech. They have the second longest win streak in the country behind Butler. They have a very impressive win over BYU. They split with NMST and swept Nevada in WAC play. They may need to get to the final of the WAC tournament to get an at large bid.

Nevada (20-11 (11-5) RPI:62) a win over Idaho put Nevada in the WAC semis vs New Mexico State. Their best non-conference win was Tulsa and they swept New Mexico State but were swept by Utah State, lost to UNLV and also have a bad loss to Hawaii. Nevada would have to win the WAC tourney to get in. It helps the WAC tournament is on their home court.

Tulsa (23-10 (10-6) RPI:64) like UNLV and Nevada, Tulsa is hosting their conference tournament. Down 10 in the second half, used a 25-6 run to end Marshall's season in the C-USA quarters. They will play top seed UTEP today. Tulsa would have to win out to make the field of 65. Tulsa doesn't have much in terms of quality wins except wins over Oklahoma State and Memphis. They were swept by UTEP, and lost to Duke and Nevada.

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