Saturday, March 13, 2010

Bricketology Vol 5

Friday three more teams locked up bids. Georgia Tech beat Maryland, San Diego State beat New Mexico and California beat UCLA. More teams fell off the bubble. Dayton lost to Xavier, St Louis lost to URI, Northwestern blew a halftime lead and lost to Purdue, Nevada lost at home to New Mexico State and Ole Miss lost to Tennessee. Mississippi State, Minnesota, Illinois and Rhode Island did what needed to be done to stay alive. 12 conference championship games today. Will we see any surprises.

Last 4 IN
Washington
Illinois
Florida
Rhode Island

Last 4 OUT
Minnesota
Mississippi State
Seton Hall
Ole Miss

The Bubble
Rhode Island (23-8 (9-7) RPI:38) a 63-47 over St Louis put Rhode Island in the A-10 semis and a showdown with Temple. With the way the bubble is shrinking, the Rams may need to win the A-10 tournament to earn a bid. The Rams went 0-5 against the top 4 seeds in the A-10and only have 2 top 50 RPI wins (OKST 28 and Dayton 49). They do have some eyesore losses (St Bonaventure 155 and UMass 175).

Illinois (19-13 (10-8) RPI:72) Illinois' 58-54 win over Wisconsin may be just enough to put them in the tournament. They will play Ohio State in the Big 10 semis. A win with certainly put them in lock status. They now have 5 decent wins (Mich St, @Wisc(twice), Clemson and Vandy). What could hurt them was the 2 point loss at home to Minnesota.

Minnesota (20-12 (9-9) RPI:65) the Gophers were all but dead after their 28 point loss at Michigan. But the Gophers have new life after an upset of Michigan State in the Big Ten tournament. They may have to beat Purdue in the semi-finals and have a good showing in the championship to be in consideration. Minnesota has 4 top 50 RPI wins (Ohio State, Mich State, Wisconsin and Butler) and won the only meeting vs Illinois. Their bad losses include a sweep by Michigan and a loss to Indiana.

Washington (23-9 (11-7) RPI:48) Washington beat Stanford to advance to the Pac-10 final vs Cal. A win gives them the automatic bid. A loss may send them to the NIT with the way the bubble is shrinking. Washington's best wins are Texas A&M and Cal. Losing twice to USC and at home to Oregon doesn't help.

Mississippi State (22-11 (9-7) RPI:63) a huge win over Florida in the SEC quarters keeps them on the bubble for now. Miss State draws Vanderbilt in the SEC semis. They would have to win the SEC tournament to get into the tournament based on their numbers. Not much in terms of good wins. Their best wins are ODU, Ole Miss twice and Florida. They do have bad losses to Rider and Auburn.

Florida (21-12 (9-7) RPI:51) Florida lost to Mississippi State in the SEC quarters to put their chances in jeopardy. Florida has good wins vs Mich St, Tennessee and Florida State. But how will their late season loss to Georgia hurt? Florida will be sweating on selection Sunday.

Utah State (27-6 (14-2) RPI:26) Utah State is in good shape to make the NCAA's after beating La Tech to reach the WAC final vs New Mexico State. They have the second longest win streak in the country behind Butler. They have a very impressive win over BYU. They split with NMST and swept Nevada in WAC play.

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